Oops, they did it again. Veto this, David Stern.

After getting taken out to pasture by a younger, hungrier OKC team, the aging Los Angeles Lakers appeared ready to go quietly into the night. Retired for good along with the 1987 Celtics, 1989 Lakers, 1991 Pistons, and many other former champions whose window had effectively closed.

This would have been the obvious takeaway…at least to anyone who has completely ignored recent Laker and NBA history.

Each of the Lakers’ last 3 dynasties in the past 30 years – from Magic/Kareem/Worthy to Shaq/Kobe to Kobe/Gasol has been marked by stunning Houdini-esque Laker front office maneuvers. How else to explain the acquisitions of Kareem, Worthy, Kobe, and Gasol for – wait for it – a collection of talent that includes: Elmore Smith, Brian Winters, Dave Myers, Junior Bridgeman, Don Ford, Chad Kinch, Vlade Divac, Marc Gasol, and Javaris Crittenton. For those keeping score at home: that’s 2 all-time greats, 1 other Hall of Famer,  and a perennial All-star power forward for a group of misfits headlined by two lumbering Euro centers. In acquiring Steve Nash from the Phoenix Suns, Mitch Kupchak and crew are attempting to repeat history once again.

A Big 4 delivered on the 4^th of July. Kobe. Nash. Gasol. Bynum. So the question now is: can the Lakers win the title with Nash?

Let’s cut to the chase: the prevailing opinions tend to slice one of two ways:

(1)    Yes! The Lakers got the point guard they finally needed. He will make Gasol and Bynum better and deliver in the clutch.

(2)    This still doesn’t solve the Lakers’ primary issues. Kobe is aging. There are too few balls to go around (and this exacerbates the problem). Gasol and Bynum are soft and Mike Brown is not the right coach.

Every article you read over the next few days will essentially boil down to 1 of these 2 points of view. So what are we to really make of this trade?

1.       Nash will make Bynum and Gasol better.

This is undeniable. As a point guard that Kobe actually respects, Nash will be able to better control game flow and ensure that Bynum and Gasol get touches at areas of the court where they can be effective. Whether or not you believe he is the greatest offensive player ever, Nash’s ability to break down defenses should also increase the number of easy buckets each big man gets. Lastly, Nash’s career has been dotted with his ability to make the big men around him look much better than advertised: from Boris Diaw to Amare Stoudemire. There is no doubt he will be able to do the same in LA.

2.       This in no way solves the Lakers’ athleticism problem.

To anyone who watched the Lakers/OKC series during this past year’s playoffs, it was immensely clear that the only way the Lakers could hang around was by neutralizing the Thunder’s immense edge in athleticism. Will Nash allow the Lakers to play faster at times? Sure. Will he make them more efficient on offense? Probably. But still fundamentally, the Lakers will look like old men against the Heat and Thunder. If fact, this trade just makes them slightly older. While a well-coached Laker team may be able to hold off the physical freaks that represent Lebron, Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka for finite periods, as Charles Barkley likes to say, “No one beats Father Time”.

3.         Kobe and Nash will get along.

Anyone who uses the line that Kobe can’t play alongside Nash because he needs the ball, doesn’t really understand Kobe. From 2000-02, Kobe played alongside Shaq extremely effectively, putting up big numbers while allowing Shaq to get his own. Things turned sideways only when Kobe really lost respect for Shaq, amidst his conditioning issues and contractual demands. On the other hand, Kobe respects Nash immensely and will be happy to co-exist in an environment where Nash is the primary ball handler while on the floor. Expect a similar relationship to the early Kobe-Shaq days, where Kobe consistently deferred to Shaq for the first 3 quarters, while demanding the ball in the 4^th.

4.       Contrary to popular belief, Dwight Howard is not the final piece.

As a Laker fan, I don’t believe the line of reasoning that this trade is only effective if the Lakers subsequently acquire Dwight Howard. I just didn’t see Bynum as the problem in last year’s playoffs. Was he as consistent as you would like him to be? Surely not. But his averages of 17/11 with 3 blocks per game don’t suggest someone that drastically underperformed either. The Lakers’ loss was due to several factors plain and simple, none of which had anything to do with Bynum or Howard: (1) Kobe not playing well in two 4^th quarters that would have had the Lakers up 3-1, (2) Gasol shrinking once again when needed most, (3) OKC’s athleticism, and (4) the Lakers’ inability to get anything out of Sessions or their bench (especially from the outside). Trading for Nash will alleviate some of the pressure for Kobe to deliver in the 4^th quarter, and it seemed as though the Lakers were able to effectively neutralize OKC’s athleticism for large chunks of their playoff series. Gasol and the bench however are two persistent and serious problems – neither of which gets solved by acquiring Nash or trading for Dwight.

5.       All this being said, the pressure is now truly on Kobe.

With a top 10 all-time point guard, one of the game’s best power forwards, and a top 3 center – Kobe’s legacy will be under greater scrutiny than ever. Even if these pieces are each individually imperfect (Nash is too old, Gasol is too soft, Bynum is too immature, etc.), another early playoff exit with this roster would inflict great damage on our impression of the latter stages of Bryant’s career.

This is a tough one to draw a conclusion on – at face value: it still seems like there may not be enough here to put the Lakers over the top. Adding Grant Hill, and upgrading the bench would go a long way however and the jury is still out on Mike Brown.

A Nash Equilibrium is a game theory concept conceived by mathematician John Nash, loosely meaning “a set of strategic choices between two parties in which neither party has anything to gain by changing their strategy alone” (thank you, 3^rd year college Econ class). However you may criticize the state of the Lakers’ post-Nash acquisition, it truly seems as if acquiring him (despite arguments against his age, need to handle the ball, lack of defense, etc.) was something they couldn’t pass up. Conversely for the Suns, another year with Nash wouldn’t have made sense for a team being rebuilt – and the Laker outcome was certainly better than an alternative with Toronto where no compensation was received at all.

In the end, it may turn out that this equilibrium with Nash was exactly that. The best choice out of a limited set. One that may provide just a brief flicker of life for the Lakers’ Kobe era over the next couple of years, but not much more than that.

Please welcome Jevan Pradas, aka The Basketball Philosopher, as a paid contributor to Chasing 23. While in graduate school Jevan cared more about winning his University’s intramural basketball championships than cramming for finals. Despite this, he managed to graduate with honors while studying Philosophy and Statistics. He now uses this unique analytics background to come to surprising and often counter-intuitive basketball opinions.

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Skeptics : Steve Nash is the greatest offensive player ever? And you call yourself the basketball philosopher? I think you need to put down the hash and get back to your job serving me fries! Haven’t you ever heard of Michael Jordan? Magic Johnson? Wilt ‘freaking’ Chamberlain?

Of course I have. And they are all fantastic players. But Steve Nash is a better offensive player than all of them (though the wisdom of his loyalty at times might be questioned). And by the end of this post, you are going to agree with me.

I promise.

I won’t even beat around the bush. I have not one, but TWO knock down, airtight arguments.

Here is number one. Neil Paine of basketball-reference fame did a great analysis of the best offenses in NBA history. He used the stat offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) including regular season and playoffs for every team dating back to 1951. Of course eras are different, rules change, some that favor offense, some that don’t. So to make things equal, offenses are rated compared to their own era, by Z score (the number of standard deviations above or below the average a team was on offense).

The Greatest Offenses in NBA History

1. 2007 Phoenix Suns
2. 2005 Phoenix Suns
3. 1971 Milwaukee Bucks
4. 2010 Phoenix Suns
5. 1982 Denver Nuggets
6. 2004 Dallas Mavericks
7. 1975 Houston Rockets
8. 1987 Los Angeles Lakers
9. 2004 Sacremento Kings
10. 2006 Phoenix Suns
11. 2009 Phoenix Suns

Do you notice a pattern with the above teams? Other than the fact that, you know, I put certain teams in bold font? Of course you do. The top 2, 3 of the top 4 and 6 of the top 11 offenses of all time (2002 Mavs also had 18th best offense ever) were led by a 6’3 Canadian by the name of Steve Nash.

That’s not a coincidence. I feel like I could take off my boots and put my feet up on the desk, the case is closed as far as I’m concerned.

Skeptics: But wait a second! All that shows is that he played on great offensive teams. He did play with Amar’e Stoudemire after all!

So did the 2011 New York Knicks.

Are you also forgetting the 2006 Phoenix Suns? The year Amar’e had micro-fracture surgery on his knee and missed the entire season? That team was the 10th greatest offense in the history of the NBA. The team that featured a starting lineup of Steve Nash, Raja Bell, Shawn Marion, Boris Diaw and Kurt Thomas. That lineup produced a better offense than any team Michael Jordan or Wilt Chamberlain ever played on. That lineup had a Z-score of 2.31 SD’s above the league average. The 1987 Lakers had a Z-score 2.33 SD’s above the league average. Almost identical. Tell me how is it possible that these two starting lineups are equivalent offensively unless Steve Nash is an offensive God?

2006 Phoenix Suns vs. 1987 Los Angeles Lakers Starting Lineups

Skeptics: It was Mike D’antoni’s system!

D’antoni’s system? Sure MD is an offensive minded coach, but that really hasn’t helped the mediocre Knicks team the past 4 years has it? During the last 3 years as coach of the Knicks, D’Antoni’s teams have never led the NBA in scoring and were as low as 10th (for the 2009-10 season). Additionally, the 2009 and 2010 Phoenix Suns are also two of the 11 greatest offenses of all time – and MD wasn’t the coach those years.

Skeptics: Enticing evidence I admit, but we are still not convinced. What else you got?

Knockdown, airtight argument #2.

There is a stat, my favorite, called Adjusted Plus/Minus. It breaks down plus/minus stats into individual contributions, and produces a number that tells you how many points a player adds to a given team’s offense (and defense) per game. Here are the league leaders of the last few years using a variant of adj. Plus/Minus called Ridge Regressed Adj. Plus/Minus (RAPM) which has less absolute validity (the point estimates are conservative) but more reliability. Even last year, Nash was still the best in the game.

2011 RAPM Rankings

1.Nash 6.2
2.Dirk 5.6
3.Wade 5.5
4.Ginobili 4.9
5t.CP3 4.1
5t.LBJ 4.1

But it was in the years 2005-2008 that Nash was truly head and shoulders above everyone else in the league. A quick sampling of one of those years:

2008 RAPM Rankings

1.Nash 7.4
2.Kobe 5.7
3.B. Davis 5.4
4.Lebron 5.3
5.Dirk 5.3

No one meant more to their team’s offense than Steve Nash. And it wasn’t even close.

*Unties boots, kicks feet up*

Case is closed fellas.

I’m going to do something in this post that will undoubtedly cause many of you to flood the Comments section calling me crazy, idiotic or worse. Actually, it’s three things: (1) I’m going to criticize Steve Nash, (2) I’m going to criticize him for being loyal to his team, and (3) I’m going to call out some of you fans as suckers for your loyalty.

Just hear me out first.

LeBron James was ripped for lack of loyalty, among other things, upon departing Cleveland in 2010. The same for Kobe Bryant when he demanded a trade from the Lakers in 2007, Carmelo Anthony when he forced a trade out of Denver last year, and Dwight Howard for requesting a trade out of Orlando this year. But Nash offers a telling counter-example, showing that loyalty can be detrimental and can make no sense. The thing to keep in mind with Nash is that he has let himself be used by an owner who isn’t committed to winning and by a front office that has been incompetent at best. In so doing, he has found himself toiling for a team which isn’t close to being a contender and doesn’t figure to become one anytime soon. In my view, no amount of loyalty is worth that, esp. considering how short NBA careers are and how fleeting opportunities for contention can be. It didn’t have to be this way. By the summer of 2009 two things had become manifestly clear:

1. Owner Robert Sarver was only interested in saving money, as evidenced by (a) trading multiple draft picks, including the rights to Rajon Rondo in ’06 and Rudy Fernandez in ’07, for nothing but cash,[1] (b) trading a young-and-emerging Joe Johnson in ’05 for what turned out to be Boris Diaw and Robin Lopez because they didn’t want to re-sign Johnson at the going rate and (c) trading Kurt Thomas AND a pair of first-round draft picks in ’07 for a second-round pick just to get his salary off the Suns’ books.

2.  The Suns’ front office was inept and/or complicit in ownership’s stinginess, as evidenced by (a) the failure to insist that the Hawks drop top-3 lottery protection for their ’07 first-round pick as part of the Johnson trade,[2] thus enabling the Hawks to take Al Horford with that year’s #3 pick and (b) the Shaq trade in ’08, which cost the Suns their best defender in Shawn Marion and their up-tempo fluidity.[3]

These moves had the effect of turning the Suns from a dynamic, up-and-coming team which reached back-to-back conference finals in ’05 and ’06 to an old team which missed the playoffs in ’09. The trend line was clearly pointing downward. Nash was a year away from joining the much-ballyhooed free-agent class of 2010; his presence in that class would have been a game-changer for many teams, and would in all likelihood have landed him in a much better situation than the one he was in at the time, or that he is in now. Yet in that same summer of 2009, a year before his contract was due to expire, Nash re-upped with the Suns for two more years.

Why? Before signing, Nash had received explicit assurances that the Suns would do what it took to field a competitive team, and yes, they did come within two wins of the 2010 Finals, losing a hard-fought conference finals to the Lakers in six games. But that was a lightning-in-a-bottle scenario that could not be sustained beyond that season without an upgrade in talent. Instead:

* In the summer of 2010, the Suns let Amare Stoudemire walk, offering him only a three-year deal because they were worried about his knees. Uh, excuse me? His knees had been an issue ever since he underwent microfracture surgery FIVE YEARS earlier. The Suns had to have known that in that superheated off-season, some other team (the Knicks, as it were) would trump their offer, which tells me that they were NEVER serious about re-signing him. In that case, why didn’t they trade him before then and get some value back for him?

* To fill the void left by Stoudemire’s departure, the Suns signed Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress and Hedo Turkoglu to long-term deals, which tied up their cap flexibility and left them with little to no room to improve.

* Early in the 2010-11 season, the Suns sent Turkoglu and Jason Richardson (who, along with Nash and Stoudemire, were the key contributors to their playoff run the season before) to Orlando for Vince Carter’s expiring contract and Marcin Gortat (and I put them in that order because, while Gortat has been solid for the Suns, I’m convinced that their main motive was to salary-cap relief).

Did the Suns flat-out lie to Nash in order to induce his contract extension, or were they just being incompetent? Whatever it was, the results have been predictable; the Suns missed the playoffs last season and are likely to do so this season. Yet through it all, Nash has said nothing. He did not demand or request a trade after ownership and management dismantled contending squads not once but twice in the name of saving money; in fact, he signed an extension even when it was, or at least should have been, clear that ownership and management lacked the motivation and smarts to win.

Many, perhaps most, fans applaud Nash as a rare and refreshing example of loyalty, but I don’t. Rather, his seeming willingness to abide the deterioration of the team around him makes me wonder if he really wants to win, or if he’s too comfortable in his current environment to want something better. I’ll go a step further: whether intending to or not, Nash has enabled the deterioration of the team around him, as ownership and the front office surely came to the conclusion some time ago that they could act (or not act) with impunity because Nash wouldn’t rebel or leave no matter how bad things got.[4] (This is where my observation that “some of you fans are suckers for your loyalty” comes in. Any fan who continues to buy tickets, pay for arena parking and concessions and/or buys the merchandise of a team whose commitment and/or competence is lacking is an enabler of that team’s continued struggles. That means you, Suns fans, and you, Clippers fans (before they lucked out big-time with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul). Looking at other sports, that means you, Cubs fans, Bills fans and Maple Leafs fans, among others.)

Fortunately, Nash is approaching one final chance to change course.  His contract expires this summer; it is a virtual certainty that he will not be traded by next month’s deadline, and it would not surprise me at all if he were to re-up with the Suns yet again.  But I hope that this time, he will choose to go to a team that actually wants to win, that has the financial commitment to field a winning team and the front-office smarts to do so as well.  I hope that this time, Nash will choose to be loyal to the one person to whom he will have to answer as far as whether he truly did everything that he could to win – himself.

As the resident Kobe fan of Chasing 23, nothing irks me more than the claim that Kobe has “quit’ on his team several times during his career. No other argument seems more contrary to who Kobe fundamentally is. This line of Kobe bashing came into play once again during the 2011 Finals as folks began to compare Lebron’s performance to the games that Kobe supposedly “quit”.

Exhibit A for this argument against Kobe has traditionally been the 2006 Game 7 Western Conference 1^st round match-up between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns. Popular opinion states the following:

• After taking 13 shots in the 1^st half of the game, Kobe checked out and only took 3 shots in the 2^nd half (scoring 1 point on an illegal defense free throw)
• Kobe was upset with Charles Barkley who had accused him of taking too many shots in the latter part of the series, so was trying to prove a point that this Laker team had no shot of winning if Kobe didn’t try and take over
• Kobe played passively and essentially threw in the towel during the 3^rd quarter of the game

This line of reasoning was even recently recited during a discussion between Chasing 23 readers Lochpster and Boyer. My own recollection of the game is that Kobe gave an unbelievable effort in the 1^st half, and even with this performance, the Lakers still were getting trounced. In the 2^nd half, he kept finding open teammates who were completely unable to find the mark (perhaps the worst offender was his alleged “no. 2” Lamar Odom, who seemed to disappear for long stretches at a time).

So I decided to settle this argument the only way we know how to here at Chasing 23: go through the tape (see parts: 1/2/3/4) of the 2^nd half and remove the bias that is introduced by our own desire to create a story around athletes we follow. Mind you, this was extremely painful for this Laker fan to relive. As I rewatched that night 5 years ago, I remembered the hopeless feeling that set in during the middle of the 2^nd quarter when I realized this Laker team was simply overmatched against the Suns. I also found myself screaming at Odom, Smush, and Kwame all over again – amazed by their incompetence and lack of desire, and wanting to send them personalized invitations that the game had already begun. Lastly, I was sickened by a defense that made Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw seem like all-world players.

With that said, here is a play-by-play breakdown of what happened in the 2^nd half (until approximately the 5 minute mark of the 4^th quarter, when the Lakers were down 28 and Kobe exited the game). An attempt was made to document those possessions where Kobe touched the ball, as well as the general result. All Laker possessions have been documented as well as all Phoenix Suns scores. Finally, highlighted in green are all plays that resulted in (1) a Laker score or (2) a good Laker offensive possession, i.e., ones that ended with a wide open shot or shot deep in the lane.

Background: In the 1st half of Game 7, Kobe singlehandedly kept the Lakers close (somewhat), scoring 23 of the Lakers’ 45 points. Bryant nailed four 3-pointers while shooting over 60% from the field. Still, the Lakers went into the locker room trailing the Suns by 15.

Phoenix Suns: 60, Los Angeles Lakers: 45

Beginning of 3rd quarter

11:15:  Kobe touch pass; Parker takes it in lane; bricks an open shot in lane

11:03: Shawn Marion drains mid-range jumper.

Phoenix Suns: 62, Los Angeles Lakers: 45

10:37: Luke Walton drains a wide open 3; Kobe does not touch ball.

Phoenix Suns: 62, Los Angeles Lakers: 48

10:29: Raja Bell drains 3-pointer.

Phoenix Suns: 65, Los Angeles Lakers: 48

10:17: Kwame misses 3 footer in the lane and then misses tap-in; Kobe does not touch ball.

10:03: Kobe touch pass. Kwame drawn into ill-advised shooting foul by James Jones.

Phoenix Suns: 67, Los Angeles Lakers: 48

9:44: Kobe touch pass to Walton, Walton bricks layup, Turiaf scores putback.

Phoenix Suns: 67, Los Angeles Lakers: 50

9:21: Diaw blows by Smush Parker for dunk.

Phoenix Suns: 69, Los Angeles Lakers: 50

9:02: Set play for Odom; passes to Luke Walton who misses open shot from the free throw line; Kobe does not touch ball.

8:52: Goaltending by Turiaf; Raja Bell scores.

Phoenix Suns: 71, Los Angeles Lakers: 50

8:30: Kobe quick touch pass to Smush Parker;  Smush misses wide open 3-pointer and then makes putback layup.

Phoenix Suns: 71, Los Angeles Lakers: 52

7:56: Shooting foul by Lamar Odom on Diaw, who makes both free throws.

Phoenix Suns: 73, Los Angeles Lakers: 52

7:46: Kobe misses 3-pointer (first shot of quarter).

7:07: Kobe passes into Walton who misses 2-footer.

6:35: Walton misses wide open 3-pointer; Kobe does not touch ball.

6:11: Kobe makes illegal defense free throw.

Phoenix Suns: 73, Los Angeles Lakers: 53

6:05: Smush Parker drains 3-pointer; Kobe does not touch ball.

Phoenix Suns: 73, Los Angeles Lakers: 56

5:40: James Jones drains a 3-pointer.

Phoenix Suns: 76, Los Angeles Lakers: 56

5:22: Smush Parker commits a lazy turnover; Kobe does not touch ball.

5:07: Shawn Marion dunks the ball.

Phoenix Suns: 78, Los Angeles Lakers: 56

4:31:  Kobe double teamed and passes out; gets the ball back and misses 3-pointer.

4: 31: Shawn Marion fouled on loose ball; makes 2 free throws.

Phoenix Suns: 80, Los Angeles Lakers: 56

4:22: Odom fouled on drive; makes both. Kobe does not touch ball.

Phoenix Suns: 80, Los Angeles Lakers: 58

3:44: Kobe passes into Odom on set play; Odom to Kwame for dunk.

Phoenix Suns: 80, Los Angeles Lakers: 60

3:20: Leandro Barbosa makes mid-range jumper.

Phoenix Suns: 82, Los Angeles Lakers: 60

2:59: Set play for Odom; passes to wide open Devean George who misses 3-pointer; Kobe does not touch the ball,

2:50: Raja Bell drains 3. The rout is on.

Phoenix Suns: 85, Los Angeles Lakers: 60

2:27: Kobe pass out of double team. First sign of frustration in body language. Kwame Brown misses 4 footer in lane.

2:04: Kobe pass into set isolation post play for Odom. Misses driving layup under contention.

1:49: Quick 3-pointer by Vujacic. Odom putbacks the miss. Kobe does not touch the ball.

Phoenix Suns: 85, Los Angeles Lakers: 62

1:32: Driving uncontested layup by Barbosa.

Phoenix Suns: 87, Los Angeles Lakers: 62

1:13: Pick and roll play with Kobe, he’s doubled and passes to an open George in the corner who misses a 3. This is a play commonly made today by Lebron (for which he is credited).  

0:47: Pick and roll between Kobe and Cook; Kobe makes a behind the back pass to Cook who bricks open 16 footer followed by a missed Devean George tip-in.

0:27: Diaw blows by George for a short jumper (and gets fouled on a continuation play).

Phoenix Suns: 90, Los Angeles Lakers: 62

0:13: Kobe and Cook pick and roll. Kobe makes fundamental play passing out of double to Cook who rotates to Vujacic who drains wide open 3.

Phoenix Suns: 90, Los Angeles Lakers: 65

End of 3^rd

11:37:  Kobe passes out of double team; Cook drains turnaround jumper.

Phoenix Suns: 90, Los Angeles Lakers: 67

11:03: Post play to Cook who misses short turnaround; Kobe does not touch ball.

10:42: Nash blows by Parker for wide open lay-up.

Phoenix Suns: 92, Los Angeles Lakers: 67

10:27: Cook takes ill-advised 28-foot 3 pointer as Kobe is calling for the ball in the post. Kobe does not touch the ball.

10:03 – Kobe attempts to run a play through Smush who fumbles the ball. Kobe is clearly frustrated about the lack of execution. Kobe gets offensive foul attempting to drive to basket.

9:53 – Kobe called on another very questionable offensive foul making a drive to the lane.

9:47 – Tim Thomas dunks the ball.

Phoenix Suns: 94, Los Angeles Lakers: 67

9:19 – Kobe attempts to split double team for 1^st time in 2^nd half, gets fouled. On subsequent inbound, set play results in layup for Odom.

Phoenix Suns: 94, Los Angeles Lakers: 69

8:56 – Tim Thomas blows by Cook for layup.

Phoenix Suns: 96, Los Angeles Lakers: 69

8:37 – Kobe is doubled and ball rotates over to Cook; pass to Walton who drills a wide open 17 footer.

Phoenix Suns: 96, Los Angeles Lakers: 71

7:54 – Kobe doubled off pick and roll and passes to Cook for wide open 3. Brick. Vujacic and Cook miss two layups on offensive rebounds and then Cook turns it over.

7:18 – Kobe passes to Odom with good position in post who scores a turnaround in the lane.

Phoenix Suns: 96, Los Angeles Lakers: 73

7:09: Leandro Barbosa drains 3 pointer.

Phoenix Suns: 99, Los Angeles Lakers: 73

6:42: Kobe/Turiaf pick and roll. Kobe doubled. Ball rotation results in wide open Luke Walton brick.

6:16 – Nash drains mid range jumper.

Phoenix Suns: 101, Los Angeles Lakers: 73

6:01 – Kobe/Turiaf run pick and roll. Kobe doubled. Ball rotation results in wide open Vujacic 17 footer that misses the mark.

5:41 – Boris Diaw makes wide open layup on assist from Nash.

Phoenix Suns: 103, Los Angeles Lakers: 73

5:20 – Kobe touch passes to set play between Odom and Walton. Walton makes short bank shot.

Phoenix Suns: 103, Los Angeles Lakers: 75

4:54 – Kobe makes an expert lob in deep to Turiaf who is fouled under the basket.

Kobe exits game for Smush Parker.

An analysis of the Lakers’ 34 second half possessions looks like this:

In the 2^nd half, of the 24 possessions where Kobe touched the ball, over 90% of them resulted in either a made shot, an open missed shot, or a Kobe shot/offensive foul. In other words, in those possessions, Kobe overwhelmingly helped lead the offense to a good outcome or shot the ball himself.

In the circumstances where Kobe did not touch the ball, the Lakers wound up with a good outcome (make or wide open shot), 70% of the time. Of the 3 plays that were bad Laker possessions here, during one play, Kobe demanded the ball from Cook who ignored him and took a long 3, another play was a set post-up for Cook that resulted in a contested turnaround, and the last play was a careless turnover just over midcourt by Smush Parker.

Overall, of the 34 possessions documented above, 85% of them resulted in either a make, a missed wide open shot, or a Kobe shot/foul. The remaining 5 plays were generally poor decisions made by other players early in shot clock or were set plays called by Laker coaching.

Conclusion

Looking at the data above, it is difficult to see any way to come to the conclusion that Kobe quit during Game 7 of the 2006 playoffs opening round vs. the Suns. Kobe ran the offense at a rate where 85% of the time his teammates either made the shot, missed a wide open shot, or the possession belonged the Kobe. He showed high engagement throughout the 2^nd half, bringing up the ball 10 times during the last 10 possessions documented here, resulting in 8 makes/missed wide open shots and 2 offensive fouls. While Kobe can certainly be blamed for being ineffective (2 missed 3 pointers and 2 questionable offensive fouls), his play put his team in a good position to execute the offense time and time again.

In fact, the Lakers’ lackluster performance in Game 7 can be directly attributed to 2 causes: (1) the complete disappearance of the supporting cast and (2) as referenced earlier, lackluster defense against the Suns bench, specifically Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa.

With respect to the supporting cast, the Lakers team outside of Kobe (who shot 50% from the field), shot a measly 32%. Keep in mind, that this percentage was based on shots that were, in large part, either wide open or several feet away from the basket if contested. Besides Kobe and Walton, the remaining Lakers shot an atrocious 1-16 from the 3 point line. No Laker in the front court had more than 5 rebounds against a team whose center was Boris Diaw. Only one Laker player had more than 2 assists.

In the meantime, the Laker defense on the other end of the court was equally horrendous. The Phoenix bench made a mockery of the Lakers starters. Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw, two players who were mediocre earlier on in the series, combined for 47 points and even Tim Thomas chipped in with 12. A review of the 2^nd half play by play reveals an array of wide open 3 pointers, layups, and dunks that thoroughly demoralized the Laker team.

Qualitatively, there is only 1 overt circumstance where an argument can be made for Kobe’s frustration causing him to not fully play out the possession. At 2:27 left in the 3^rd quarter with the Lakers down 25, Kobe appears to pass the ball quickly and back out of the play, seemingly at a loss over what to do (even this play however, resulted in an easy 4 footer that Kwame Brown missed).

Mike D’Antoni, realizing that the Lakers’ only hope at some point would be if Kobe got into the “zone”, employed a strategy commonly used by many teams attempting to take Kobe out of the offensive scheme: jumping out on the high pick and roll and double teaming him above the key away from the basket. In this circumstance, the Laker counter strategy has typically been to ball rotate twice to the open man (the modern day version of this is typically Kobe passing to Gasol/Odom in the high post from where they find the open shooter). Starting toward the latter portion of the 3^rd quarter, Kobe saw a double team nearly every time he touched the ball for the remainder of the game. Kobe’s teammates however were completely unable to take advantage of their opportunities, putting the Lakers (and Kobe) in an unwinnable situation.

Finally, there are those who will argue that it was imperative on Kobe that he not leave his team’s fate up to his ineffective teammates. Kobe realized that this strategy had already been tried in the 1^st half with an extremely negative result (the Lakers down by 15). Kobe knew the only way the Lakers would be able to rally against the Suns was via ball movement and getting at least 1 or 2 other players that could contribute to the offense. As Kobe himself stated later,”"To get back in the game, we needed somebody else to start making shots. I was just trying to get the other guys going, turn the momentum around.”

Unfortunately, for both Kobe and the Lakers on that forgettable night 5 years ago, that strategy never materialized.

Man, those NBA Playoffs were pretty great, weren’t they? So who’s up for some free agency and trade talk? Oh, that’s right…no one. Instead, we’ve had the game taken away from us for what looks to be quite awhile as the two sides figure out how to divide the pie. Sure, we could spend all of our time bitching a moaning about who’s wrong and who’s to blame. But I don’t have the energy or the law degree to properly get down into the muck and search for an answer. And frankly, I don’t really care. I’d rather spend my time on things a lot more entertaining this summer, as I’m sure you would too, dear reader.

Thus, I give you ten deals that should get done once the lockout is lifted. For the most part, I’ve tried to remain faithful to the most recent trade rules, trying to match up salaries and the like. But mostly, consider this the basketball version of an online dating service, just trying to create happy relationships. So without further ado, let’s start with…

10. Andre Iguodala for Ben Gordon – For a couple of weeks, hardly a day went by when Iguodala wasn’t rumored to be going to one team or another. Which is probably just as well considering his discontent with the way things are progressing in Philly and the idea that he’s quickly becoming the odd man out on a young, rebuilding squad. His trade value is still high even if injuries caused his numbers to slip a little bit last year, making this the perfect time for the Sixers to move him. For Iggy, a move to the Motor City probably isn’t the situation he’s looking for, but his scoring and athleticism could bring a lot to a team struggling to find an identity. And if he’s still not happy, he has the choice to opt out of his deal in two years and look for greener pastures.

Similarly, Gordon was a big part of the mass mutiny that took place on the Good Ship Piston this past year and has pretty much worn out his welcome in Detroit. He was never the player the Pistons thought they were getting when they signed him to a five-year, $55 million deal in ’09. A change of scenery could do him some good. Playing for a team in need of a long-range shooter could do him even more good.

9. Donald Sterling for Justin Timberlake – Justin Timberlake probably knows very little about running an NBA team. That’s okay, the same applies to Sterling. But after purchasing a piece of MySpace, it appears that the pop star is interested in sinking some of his fortune into losing propositions. With emerging stars like Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan on the roster, the Clips have a brighter future than the website right now. Plus, Timberlake could bring some much needed star power to the Clippers sidelines to help them compete with the Lakers for those nightly TV beauty shots.

As for Sterling…well he’s used to polishing turds thanks to his lengthy fortune-building career as a Los Angeles slum lord. And if you believe the stories that Sterling has bullied and intimidated David Stern on a number of league issues, the Commish could find a bit of revenge by banishing The Donald to the abandoned amusement park of the Internet.

8. Devin Harris for Jason Richardson – The Utah Jazz were rumored to have been shopping Harris, which signals that they could be looking to remake this team in Tyrone Corbin’s image and turn the page from the Jerry Sloan Era. Orlando would be a great home for Harris, where he could be part of a very interesting backcourt with Jameer Nelson. He also gives the Magic that second option at point guard that they’ve been missing since losing Rafer Alston. Only Harris is better. Plus with a team that has been so three-point-happy in recent years, having a guy who can get to the rim would be a nice change of pace for Stan Van Gundy‘s offense.

It does mean saying goodbye to Richardson’s three-point shooting. But that would be more than welcome in Utah where the Jazz could desperately use someone that has the ability to spread the floor and open things up for the glut of big men the team has collected. Now if only one of those big men could be a consistent offensive threat…but you can’t really have it all, can you?

7. Josh Smith for Glen “Big Baby” Davis – These are two guys who just don’t seem to fit in their respective situations anymore. Smith’s problems in Atlanta have generally been from the neck up. His talent has been undeniable, but his general aloofness were a contributing factor to Mike Woodson’s eventual dismissal. J-Smoove can get to the rack just about anytime he wants, but his insistence on turning himself into a jumpshooter was not only confounding, but brought audible groans from the Philips Arena crowd during the playoffs every time he launched anything longer than a five-footer. In Boston, his desire to drift away from basket and take the occasional 15-footer would be tolerated with other big guys there to bang inside.

Of course, Davis would have been one of those big guys, but with Kevin Garnett, Nenad Krstic, Jermaine O’Neal and Troy Murphy already on the roster and the Celtics drafting Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson, there’s no room (literally and figuratively) for Davis. In Atlanta, however, Big Baby’s physical style could be what the Hawks need to help them compete in the Southeast division with the likes of Orlando and Miami.

6. Rip Hamilton for Carlos Boozer – Perhaps inspired by the draft stylings of David Kahn in Minnesota, the Pistons have recently begun stockpiling guards, most notably picking up Kentucky star Brandon Knight in the draft. With overcrowding in the backcourt, the veteran Hamilton, with his large contract, is the leading candidate to move on. Plus it’s hard to imagine him wanting to stick around after being exiled to the bench for a long stretch last season. A move to Chicago means Rip gets another solid opportunity to chase a championship before his career is over and gives the Bulls a much needed additional perimeter option to help out Derrick Rose.

Meanwhile, if there’s one thing we learned during the postseason, it’s that Carlos Boozer is expendable. He missed the start of the season with injuries then played at less than 100% during the playoffs. When he was on the floor during the postseason, underwhelming was probably the best word to describe him. All the while, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson did yeoman’s work in his place. The Pistons, with their surplus of guards, could use someone to help Charlie Villanueva along the front line and Boozer could be just what the doctor ordered.

5. Monta Ellis for Lamar Odom – The only name involved in more trade rumors than Andre Iguodala was Monta Ellis. He was constantly being put on and taken off the trading block and was connected to seemingly every team in the league. But with Steph Curry and now Klay Thompson in Oakland, it would seem hard for new coach Mark Jackson to keep everyone happy. Since the W’s have hitched their wagon to Curry, it would mean Ellis is the odd man out. It would eat Warriors fans alive, but he is a good fit for a Lakers team looking to get more athletic at the point guard spot. Ellis is what L.A. hoped Shannon Brown could be, an athletic scorer who can stay with the quicker guards in the league and eventually take over for Derek Fisher. Whether Ellis is ready to give up a lot of shots and defer to Kobe Bryant remains to be seen, but on paper, he fills many of the Lakers’ needs.

Same goes for Odom to the Bay Area. Golden State’s search for a big man has rivaled Pee Wee Herman’s search for his bike. Odom would be a dynamic offensive presence in the paint and would make life much easier for Curry and Thompson on the outside. Plus, Oakland may be close enough that Khloe Kardashian wouldn’t grouse about the deal messing up the couple’s reality show.

4. Steve Nash For Brandon Roy – For Steve Nash, getting traded would be akin to getting a pardon. It would be an unpopular move with the fans since Nash is one of the most beloved Suns of all-time, but he’s done his time and taken that team as far as he can. It would be a fitting gesture for management to give him another shot at a championship run, especially now that his BFF Dirk Nowitzki has a title. With Roy, his steadily increasing salary looks even bigger when placed next to his steadily increasing inability to stay healthy.

Making the deal would give the Blazers an up-tempo floor leader able to distribute to the athletic likes of LaMarcus Aldridge and Gerald Wallace inside. Nash’s penetration can open things on the perimeter for Wesley Matthews and Nic Batum. Phoenix gets a wing player that can take the place of the departed Jason Richardson. If the Suns can re-sign Aaron Brooks, he teams up with Roy, Vince Carter and Channing Frye as a wide open offensive quartet. As for Roy’s knee problems, well…maybe it’s the dry heat, maybe it’s the training staff, but they just do a good job with knee injury rehabs in the desert. See: Hill, Grant.

3. Tony Parker for Chris Paul – Tony Parker‘s comments about the Spurs being finished were shocking. Not just because some still believe that they may have another run left in the up-for-grabs Western Conference. But also because guys from San Antonio just don’t pop off like that. So if Parker doesn’t want to be there anymore, I’m sure the Spurs can oblige him and there will likely be plenty of takers.

Say, for instance, New Orleans. The countdown clock is ticking on Chris Paul in the Big Easy and with it looking like David West won’t be back, it’s nearly impossible to imagine CP3 wanting to stay. In reality, it’s hard to envision two teams in the same division making a swap like this, but it would give New Orleans a similar-style point guard while San Antonio gets an upgrade while showing Parker how the other half of the league lives – provided they’re actually that vindictive.

2. Dwight Howard for James Harden, Kendrick Perkins & Nate Robinson – If you think the people in New Orleans hear the clock ticking for Chris Paul, the folks in Orlando must be hearing Big Ben chime when it comes to Dwight Howard. Since Superman has said he plans to test free agency, it only makes sense for general manager Otis Smith to start looking for the best deals he can get right now. With Jason Richardson as a free agent, Harden can do many of the same things, but at a much cheaper price. Perkins isn’t Howard, but he can help defend and rebound in the paint as well as score when necessary to help prevent double-teaming on Orlando’s shooters. Robinson’s expiring contract is a bonus for the Magic. Unless they want another Jameer Nelson-type…except for the passing, that is.

For the Thunder, the upside of adding Howard is a no-brainer. A Howard-Durant-Westbrook-Ibaka-Green starting lineup have to be considered an early favorite to represent the West in the NBA Finals and allows Scott Brooks to bring Thabo Sefolosha off the bench. The biggest question for OKC is whether Howard would be interested in signing a free agent deal with the team and who would have be let go to make the salaries work. It likely means the end of Nazr Mohammed in Oklahoma City.

1. David Stern & Billy Hunter for Ari Gold – But…none of these deals can happen as long as the league is locked out and much of that falls on the shoulders of Stern and Hunter. Then again, those two have been like cats and dogs (or Lakers and Celtics, if you prefer) for the better part of their respective tenures. Under Stern’s watch, 22 of 30 teams are crying poverty while Hunter has danced around the issue of whether he’ll take a pay cut during the lockout, something that will earn him some sideways looks from his constituents. How to solve it? Get superagent to the stars Ari Gold on the case. After all, he took Vincent Chase from the neighborhoods of Queens to the pinnacle of Hollywood. He’s just as arrogant and petulant as Stern can be and gives better quotes than Hunter. Besides, with all of the acrimony that’s just beginning with this work stoppage, someone needs to be there to tell both sides to “hug it out”.

Actually, Steve Nash has 2 of my votes:

1.)  Biggest 2011 All-Star Snub

2.)  My perennial vote for “Best Kelly Cutrone from The Hills Cross-Gender look-alike”. He has won every year.

Sorry folks….. I get one “The Hills” reference per year.

Regardless, Steve Nash got R-O-B-B-E-D. Nash is averaging 16.8 points, 11.1 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 53% FG, 92%FT and 41% from 3-point land – all near-statistical highs despite being almost 37 years old. Moreover, he has single-handedly carried the Phoenix Suns to a near .500 record (23-24), and within striking distance of a playoff spot, despite having his worst supporting cast since arriving in Phoenix in 2004, and arguably the worst of his career since becoming a starting point guard in the NBA.

Just for kicks, Nash’s starting lineup consists of:

• Grant Hill – 38 years old and well past his prime. I know, I know – “But he is such a nice guy”.
• Vince Carter – Well past his prime and selfish.
• Channing Fry – Demonstrated more stage fright during last year’s Western Conference Finals than most drunk dudes do at the public urinal of a baseball game.
• Robin Lopez  -Despite having a twin brother, only received 20% of his talent, but 540% of his hair.

Lets be honest, without Nash, the Suns do not win 23 games all year; forget about 23 wins after 47 games. Brace yourself fans, there is a still a Comissioner’s pick, so lets hope that Mr. Stern gets it right.