We’re baaaaack.

And thankfully for NBA fans everywhere, so is the NBA. After sitting through a forgettable season of baseball, a round of political debates that pandered to the lowest common denominator of the US, the final implosion of Lance Armstrong’s reputation and the start of a football season with no clearly great teams (though who doesn’t like to watch RGIII), the NBA ushers in the new era of the “super team” where the 1% continued to amass wealth over the offseason. With David Stern retiring (Laker fans rejoice!), just don’t expect see any Occupy Charlotte movements anytime soon.

Before we begin this year at Chasing 23 with our Western Conference Preview, let’s spend a minute and review the results of our 2011-2012 preview (since what good is a preview is we can’t criticize it later?). Here’s what we had last year:

The middle of the pack was fairly predictable, with the Lakers, Clippers, and Grizzlies all settling into their positions as predicted. The Spurs and Mavericks provided the biggest surprises of the year. The Spurs found the fountain of youth once again and cemented Greg Popovich’s status as one of the greatest of all-time. The Mavericks had one of the worse follow-on years of an NBA champion in recent memory.

We don’t expect significant movement this year at the top. The Thunder, Lakers, Clippers, and Spurs all will benefit from either more experience, more talent, or both. Outside of those teams, it remains to be seen if the Nuggest acquisition of Iguodala can help them to join the elite and whether the Grizzlies have peaked yet.

8. Utah Jazz

Take your pick here of a collection of bottom feeders that include Sacramento, Portland, Houston and others who will be competing for the final spot over the last few weeks of the 2012-13 season. Utah squeezes back into the final spot this year for their solid front court anchored by Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Marvin Williams paired with their newly acquired (and underrated) sparkplug point guard, Mo Williams. A team to watch here if the Jazz falter are the Kings, who have the mercurial, yet talented trio of Demarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, and Marcus Thornton.

7. Dallas Mavericks

That the Mavericks get the 7 seed in this year’s preview is more a sign of the respect we have for Dirk Nowitzki versus any endorsement of Dallas’ talent (though Dirk will miss roughly the first 1/5^th of the season). The Chris Kaman acquisition should help and give Nowitzki the first legitimate offensive post presence he’s had in his career and Elton Brand/OJ Mayo should provide some spark off the bench. As followers of UCLA basketball will most likely agree with however, new acquisition and starting point guard Darren Collison will likely be exposed as the limited passer and decision-maker that he is.

6. Memphis Grizzlies

It’s difficult to tell if the Memphis Grizzlies have peaked, but the feeling here is that just might be the case. Randolph, Gay, and Gasol are one of the best front courts in the NBA – however it is difficult to see any of them getting much better at this point in their careers. OJ Mayo and his ability to create off the dribble is gone, leaving little offensive punch in the backcourt. Additionally, a disappointing playoff performance last with home court against the Clippers means that the Grizzlies  failed to capitalize on the opportunity to gain valuable playoff experience.

5. Denver Nuggets

Make no mistake, this is a good, solid Nuggets team and if it weren’t for some serious talent in the Western Conference, they would be higher on this list. This is also the perennial team  that “no contender wants to meet in the playoffs” (as the Lakers nearly found out last year). The acquisition of Andre Iguodala along with the continued growth of Ty Lawson, Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari and one of the deepest benches in the NBA make this team a threat, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they earn homecourt advantage for the 1^st round of the playoffs.

4. San Antonio Spurs

We really wanted to pick the Spurs back in the sixth seed this year, but have to respect their incredible accomplishment last year as well as Pop’s mastery of his profession, so despite the continual decline of Tim Duncan, San Antonio should be able to squeeze out another respectable season.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

Clippers at number 3? Really? If last year was the beginning of the Lob City bandwagon, this year we should see the train leave the station. Chris Paul is still (with apologies to Derrick Rose fans), the best point guard in the NBA and Blake Griffin the greatest emerging power forward talent – assuming the King decides not to make the transition over to 4 this year. Add to that some valuable playoff experience and a deep roster that includes the additions of experienced veterans Lamar Odom, Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, Jamal Crawford, and Willie Green, and the Clips look ready to finally emerge out of their dark history.

2. Los Angeles Lakers

So clearly, we don’t put much stock in the preseason, otherwise this team would be somewhere below Klay Thompson and the Golden State Warriors right now. While the Lakers have the talent to finish with the no. 1 seed, as we’ve seen in the preseason, the early part of the 2012-13 season will be an exercise in acclimating to each other. The bench is a clear weakness, with Antawn Jamison looking his age and Jodie Meeks still trying to fit in. Mike Brown is still a liability as well, Princeton offense not withstanding. Additionally, it will be imperative for Bryant to cede ball control to Nash for the first 46 minutes of each game for the Lakers to be truly successful – which seems like a stretch at this point. At the same time, with this roster, anything less than a title this year for the Lakers should be construed as a disappointment.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

James Harden just found out what old school really is about. Kudos to Sam Presti for standing his ground, not giving Harden an undeserved max contract, and still getting a very good young player (Jeremy Lamb), a solid veteran (Kevin Martin), and lottery tickets for the future (2 1^st rounders) out of it. Absolutely brilliant. The core of Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka are all still intact, more experienced, and hungrier than ever after getting punished by the Heat – so expect this team to be highly motivated and set the pace in the Western Conference from the get go. The key to the title this year for the Thunder still lies with Westbrook, who must continue to mature and develop into the perfect complement for Durant’s already MVP-caliber game.

As I’ve argued in the (recent) past, the NBA’s experiencing somewhat of a competitive renaissance this season, with superstar-less teams like the Sixers, Pacers, Rockets, Hawks, Nuggets, Jazz, and Blazers jostling with their more talented competitors for top playoff seeds. And while the Heat, Bulls, Thunder, and Clippers are still the odds-on favorites to capture the title this spring, their dominance, which would’ve been all but a given in seasons past, has been challenged like never before by the league’s newly ascendant middle class.

But what must cause fans of these otherwise fine teams to curse the basketball gods for their cruel and capricious ways is that many of the franchises in question were once themselves blessed with, and led by, elite players. The Sixers, for instance, are having a superb season thus far, and will prove a nightmare for whichever team(s) they ultimately face in the playoffs; but imagine how formidable they’d be if Elton Brand, a bona fide low-post beast and defensive stalwart before his Achilles injury, was even 75% as effective as he once was. Or what if, miraculously, Brandon Roy’s and Greg Oden’s careers hadn’t been sabotaged by crippling injuries? Would the Blazers, who’ve managed to post a 14-12 record without them, be the best team in the league right now?

Two teams in particular, however, stand conspicuously above the middling pack in regards to their “what if” potential, and exemplify 2012 parity in the NBA, especially since (unlike in the cases discussed above) injury wasn’t a factor in either situation: the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz. Both squads shipped superstars elsewhere last season amid controversy, and both have (in the short-term, anyway) emerged relatively unscathed from crises that threatened to permanently derail each franchise.

But are these teams better off in the long run?

Denver

Of the two teams in question, the Nuggets probably regret their superstar’s departure the least. With the second/fourth/seventh-best record* in their conference, the highest-scoring/fastest-paced offense in the league, and a likeable young duo (Gallinari and Lawson) at the helm, Denver appears positioned to make a deep postseason run, as evidenced by victories over the Heat, Sixers, Clippers, and Lakers (though they’ve certainly suffered some setbacks of late). Furthermore, the Knicks’ early struggles, coupled with their failure to med Carmelo’s talents with those of his teammates, has only sweetened what otherwise could’ve been a very bitter divorce, and absolved Masai Ujiri and co. of their failure to retain their franchise player.

But although Carmelo’s departure was, in all likelihood, an inevitability, one has to wonder what would’ve occurred had he somehow been persuaded to resign with Denver. Would the Nuggets be appreciably better? Or would they’ve remained ensnared in the league’s middle class, as they were for most of Anthony’s tenure in the Mile High City?

Certainly, possessing a scorer of Carmelo’s caliber would (ostensibly) bolster Denver’s chances at competing for a title; for however real Danilo Gallinari’s talents, few would argue his case as a closer (according to 82games.com he’s shooting just 23% in crunchtime this season) or alpha dog. And while the Nuggets were essentially the NBA’s “Sick Man” during their long, slow fall from the heights of the ’09 season (i.e. the year they made the Conference Finals), Carmelo at least guaranteed you 50 wins a year and, provided he was teamed with someone who could shoulder the burden of leadership (Chauncey Billups being the most prominent example), a puncher’s chance of advancing in the postseason.

Yet while the Nuggets will undoubtedly fall short of the Finals without that elite scorer seemingly required of nearly every title team, dodging the disaster a Carmelo-centric future would’ve precipitated should be regarded as a victory in and of itself. For however laudatory it is to carry your team to seven consecutive 50-win seasons, failing to advance past the First Round in all but one of those years (in, again, 2009) signifies a player who, much like Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter before him, was wholly unprepared to assume the responsibilities required of a top-shelf superstar.

Carmelo could, of course, eventually transform the Knicks into a legitimate playoff contender, but the Nuggets should consider themselves lucky for having cashed in when and how they did (not they really had any other choice). Though 14 games is far too small a sample-size to declare the Knicks deal an unmitigated success for Denver, it hardly seems coincidental that the latter won 18 of its final 25 games last season following said trade, and have subsequently (and already) played at a higher level (5.19 4.08 SRS) than at any point during Anthony’s tenure in Colorado (the Nuggets’ average SRS during the Carmelo Era: 2.21).

Utah

At first glance, the Jazz’s current situation appears remarkably similar to that of Denver’s: they’re enjoying a surprisingly successful start to the season, despite having endured an ugly split with a superstar who, coincidentally, was also swapped for a package of role players from a team residing in the New York area. That their former leader’s subsequently struggled (like Carmelo) to adjust to his new environs has, in the eyes of many, undoubtedly vindicated Kevin O’Connor’s shocking decision to preemptively move Deron Williams, and left Nets fans (like their Knicks compatriots) baffled at their new star’s relative ineffectiveness.

Yet, unlike the Nuggets, the Jazz would be much, much better off had they somehow managed to hold on to their star. Though Utah was relatively unimpressive during the first half of last season (31-26 at mid-season), when Williams captained a core that’s remained largely intact from then to now, some of that team’s shortcomings were undoubtedly a product of internal strife and behind-the-scenes drama. Maybe, as Karl Malone recently claimed, D-Will had garnered too much power within the organization, and maybe the Sloan-Williams rift exposed character flaws of the latter; but unlike Carmelo, Williams had, during his stay in Salt Lake City, proven himself capable of consistently leading (and that’s the operative word) a team to postseason success without having to relinquish that burden to a more senior player.

Pondering how the Jazz would’ve fared had they managed to placate Williams and, ultimately, induce him to remain in Utah is to wander into highly speculative territory, but one can plausibly imagine that they’d be significantly better if, by some miracle, were allowed to rescind their trade with New Jersey (imagine how THAT would go over). Whatever the virtues of Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, and a future First Round pick, Deron Williams would’ve represented a perfect complement to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap (particularly after having played with them for a full season), and an enormous upgrade at point guard (sorry, Devin).

Would Deron Williams propel the Jazz to the top of the West? No, probably not. But they would almost certainly pose a very real threat to the Thunder, Clippers, Nuggets, Spurs, etc. (remember: they’ve beaten Philly, Denver, Portland, and both L.A. teams this season without a competent point guard), and, provided O’Connor surrounded his stars with the proper role players, a shot at consistently competing with the league’s elite in future seasons.

Alas.

*Losing streaks can really undermine an argument.

For the next couple of weeks, Dallas is once again home to America’s Team. Not those guys with the stars on their helmets who can’t seem to get out of their own way once the playoffs start. This time, it’s the guys sporting the horsey logos who are earning everyone’s support – so long as they can find a way to take down the Miami Heat.

Indeed, it’s a marriage of convenience for many basketball fans. The lesser of two evils. Which makes it so much more intriguing to realize that sometime during the next fortnight, there is a very real chance that David Stern could be forced to hand the Larry O’Brien Trophy over to Mark Cuban.

It would be the equivalent of Pete Rozelle giving the Super Bowl trophy to Al Davis. Arnold Palmer putting the green jacket on Jack Nicklaus. Lando Calrissian handing Han Solo and company over to Darth Vader. Maybe not that last one, but you see where I’m headed with this.

During his time as owner of the Mavericks, Cuban has been fined, fined and fined some more by the league. He’s been criticized by the media and vilified by fans. And he’s one of the best things that’s happened to the NBA in a long time.

For as much as Stern seems to have enjoyed penalizing Cuban (he’s reportedly paid more than $1.6 million in fines during his time as Mavs’ owner), the Commish should be embracing him. Cuban made basketball relevant in Texas, where football isn’t a religion…it’s much more important than that. He took over a team that had spent the previous decade needing a stepladder to climb up to mediocrity.

In every full season since he bought the club from Ross Perot in 2000, Dallas has made the playoffs. That means a whole lot of eyeballs in the country’s fifth-largest television market have been glued to what Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and company have been up to for the the past month. I generally don’t give a damn about television ratings. They don’t put a dime in my pocket, but they mean a lot for Stern and the bean counters in the league office. And until this season, there weren’t a whole lot of champagne wishes and championship dreams to be found in top-ten TV markets. You had the Lakers, the Celtics and…

Chalk it up to Cuban’s intense desire to be a winner. He’s like George Steinbrenner, minus the championships of course. But there’s no mistaking Cuban’s fervor to hang a banner in Dallas. That can’t be overlooked. It’s not a character trait shared uniformly around The Association. For every dollar Jerry Buss spends to keep the Lakers near the top of the standings, his “roommate” Donald Sterling is just as happy to put those same dollars in his silk lined pocket. Until Joe Lacob and Peter Guber took over the Golden State Warriors, Chris Cohan spent his time spending no quality time with the franchise.

You can’t make any such accusations of Mark Cuban Dallas Mavericks owner. The Mavericks began the season with the NBA’s second-highest payroll and they’ve done it intelligently. For all of Cuban’s drive to win, he has been smart enough to let actual basketball people build the roster. That has meant not paying franchise-crippling max contracts to guys like Joe Johnson or Rashard Lewis. It’s also meant not tying the team down to a lot of longterm deals. The Mavericks only have four players signed beyond the 2011-12 season. In short, Dallas has a plan and the stability to carry it out.

Oh, if only James Dolan had learned that instead of handing Isaiah Thomas the checkbook and the keys to Madison Square Garden. If only Paul Allen would figure it out and exhibit just an ounce of patience in Portland. If only Ted Leonsis would do something, anything in Washington besides complain about a salary cap he’s barely reaching.

Cuban has undeniably built a winner in Dallas. The Mavericks have won 50 games or more every year since 2000. And he’s done it with all the passion of a fan. That’s probably the best part. For all of the dumb sports movies that involve “regular” people ending up in a position of influence with their favorite teams, none of them measure up to the experience of Being Mark Cuban.

Sure, Jerry Buss or the Maloofs might travel to see their teams play on the road, but would they ever sit in the stands and interact with opposing fans? I have no doubt that Dan Gilbert would have had it in him to say Ed T. Rush “wouldn’t be able to manage a Dairy Queen”. But I can’t imagine any scenario in this universe that would involve Gilbert following that up by serving up Blizzards the next day.

That’s why Mark Cuban is the breath of oxygen in the carbon dioxide saturated room of NBA owners. In an era when the expanding economics of professional sports continues to widen the chasm between fans and their favorite franchises, Cuban has found a way to connect with fans. Because he is one. At least he is one in the way that most of us can recognize.

Does Michael Jordan want to see the Bobcats win? Definitely. Is it because he truly loves Bobcats basketball? That’s debatable. It could be about proving to people that he can be a successful executive. It could be the constant thrill of competing that drives him to run the team, but it’s the same thrill that he gets from winning at golf, poker or Rock, Paper, Scissors.

On the other hand, Cuban wears his fanship on his sleeve. It’s the reason he cussed out Bruce Bowen during the 2006 playoffs. Or why he rushed the court in ’09 to yell at J.R. Smith. Or told Kenyon Martin’s mom that her son was a thug. These are the conversations fans have amongst themselves. These are the things that force us to turn off a television in disgust and avoid all forms of sports media after tough losses. It’s why the fans in Dallas love him and why his players love playing for him.

That and renting out his guest house to players. I’m looking at you, Dennis Rodman.

But it’s the reason that if the Mavericks win the NBA Finals, David Stern should follow the lead of Howard Johnson in Blazing Saddles and present a laurel and hearty handshake to his new champion and owner of America’s New Team.

If the last NBA offseason was dubbed “The Summer of Lebron”, then without a doubt, the first half of this year has offered us the slightly watered down, made for the Internet  “Melo-Drama”. I don’t know one person who doesn’t want this story to end. It’s made a joke of the seasons of at least 3 teams (Denver, New Jersey, and New York), and it’s painful to watch Melo bend to the requests of his wife Lala – who seemingly wants to revive TRL.

That being said, the rumors are back in full swing. ESPN yesterday reported on the next 3 team tradewinds du jour involving the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks, and Minnesota Timberwolves (one sucker is required to make these deals work – hello, Chris Kahn). As part of the deal, the Knicks would give up the large, expiring contract of the human garbage disposal, Eddy Curry, as well as promising talent Wilson Chandler (as well as probably a couple of high draft picks). So, that got us thinking – what if this trade went through? What does the 2012 Knicks team look like? What do the salary cap restrictions look like? Is this a team that could compete in the East over the next five years?

Below is a view of what the Knicks roster would look like next year with the addition of Melo and subtraction of Curry and Chandler:

New York Knicks Players Under Contract in 2011-12 and Beyond

* team option  ** player option   *** non-guaranteed

This assumes Melo signs the much discussed 3 year “extend and trade”. Under the rules of the current collective bargaining agreement, Melo would then be eligible to receive a maximum of 8% raises for each subsequent year of his contract. So, if Melo opted into the last year of his contract in 2011-12, he would make $20.0M in 2012-13, $21.6 in 2013-14, and a hefty $23.3M in 2014-15. If instead he were to try and sign as a Knick at the end of this season as an opted out free agent, he would only be eligible to start at $15.5M under the current CBA. (which is why a trade appears imminent)

Next year then, 2011-12, the Melo-led Knicks would have $59M in committed contracts (assuming Turiaf and Rautins choose to exercise their player options). Given that the 2010-11 salary cap was $58.0M and does not look like it will rise, it is safe to say that barring another trade to dump salary, next year’s Knicks will be limited to signing a mid-level exception player. This will leave a lineup that features a Big 3 of Melo, Amare, and Felton, with a few decent role players (Gallinari, Walker, Fields). With the Celtics aging and the not-quite-there-yet Bulls still up and coming, this seems to leave an opening for the Knicks to jump up to a no. 2 or no.3 seed in 2011-12.

So how do things look past next year? The Knicks would have placed 2 big bets on Melo  and Amare over the next 4 years as their franchise cornerstones, tying up over $145M in contract value. With the genius that is Donnie Walsh, the Knicks would enter the 2012-13 season with only 5 players under contract (assuming the Knicks would want to exercise the Gallinari option at a reasonable $5.5M). Let’s assume the salary cap in that year is $60-63M. This would give the Knicks $11-13M of salary cap space to play with. The choice here would be to resign Raymond Felton, or sign the 3^rd all-star that has always seemed to characterize championship teams. That will a tall task, and it remains to be seen if it’s enough to land the player that would complete the Knicks’ master plans, Chris Paul. Another option would be to try and trade Felton and Turiaf’s expiring contracts in 2011-12 for a player of Paul’s caliber.

Which brings us to the real key question we should be asking:  even if the Knicks can execute on their plan, bring in Melo, and upgrade the Felton position – will they be in a position to compete with the Heat? (which of course, if really the only goal for any die-hard Madison Square garden ticket holder).

Unfortunately, from this writer’s perspective, the answer is a seemingly no. Couple of reasons why: (1) Melo + Amare +<to be named All-star> do not equal Lebron,Wade, and Bosh, (2) Mike D’Antoni’s style is not conducive for building championship teams, (3) no defense and no rebounding means no rings, (4) Amare is too fragile, and finally (5) as much as Carmelo wants to be, he is not a no. 1 guy (if you don’t believe me, ask Chauncey Billups).

The Knicks with Carmelo seemed destined to fall into the trap many NBA teams with talent fall into: not being quite good enough, and being too saddled with expensive contracts to get much better. .(for more on this, please see: Mark Cuban’s Dallas Mavericks).